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Sanity Check: Bangalore international airport rail link
Written By Devesh - 6 October, 2008
BIAL Bangalore PPP Analysis HSRL public transport Mobilicity Metro Rail
[Cross posted from My Blog]
The Karnataka state government is tripping over itself trying to expedite the High Speed Rail Link (HSRL) to the new Bengaluru International Airport (BIA), conservatively expected to cost Rs. 5,200 - Rs. 5,700 Crore by completion date, somewhere by 2012.
The HSRL project has been put on the fast track, and the Karnataka State Industrial Investment and Development Corporation Limited (KSIIDC) has already published a Request for Qualification (RFQ) document on its website. KSIIDC is expected to announce the short-list by October 21. The letter of award to the bidder is estimated for February 16, 2009. Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC), is the project consultant.
The City Airport Terminal (CAT), the starting point of the HSRL is on Parade Ground next to the Chinnaswamy Stadium on M.G. Road, with stations at Hebbal and Yelahanka. The final station will be at BIA. The first three stations will be elevated, and the BIA station is has not been determined as yet.
I am confused on some aspects of the HSRL when trying to do a sanity check.
Sanity Check 1: Who is the target customer of the HSRL ?
In 2012, assuming the global economy revives in the next 12 months, oil prices reduce drastically, and BIAL's ambition of a south India hub comes true, I can project a maximum growth to 30 million passengers. Which translates to about 500,000 passengers, up and down, per week. Assuming 60% of passengers use the HSRL, this translates to a maximum of 300,000 trips per week.
Assuming 20,000 workers at the airport, if airport workers are added, then the number of weekly trips can increase 50% to 450,000 trips.
The time-table of "airport city" where another 100,000 people are expected to work is unknown at this time. When airport city reaches peak capacity we can assume another 250,000 trips per week.
Each category of person has differing needs.
Sanity Check 2: Convenience
The Central Business District (CBD) which includes M.G. Road area is completely choked with traffic. How many travellers are willing endure the pain and hardship to come to the CAT, and then take a train.
HSRL passengers from Central, South and South East part of Bangalore can still be expected to use the CAT, since it is on the way to the airport. Those from the western, eastern, and north-western suburbs are not going to spend enormous amounts of time deviating from the shortest possible route to come to the CAT. It is unclear if there is a park and ride facility at Hebbal.
Sanity Check 3: Close integration with Namma Metro and BMTC
A lack of close integration with the Metro is another area due for a sanity check. Integration with the Metro is vital for the long term success of the HSRL as it will provide the distributed connectivity to various parts of the city. As per my understanding, the Minsk Square metro station will be connected by a 200 meter walkway to the CAT. 200 meters with luggage does not remotely qualify as integration. There is no information available on whether the Vayu Vajra service will be linked to the CAT.
Sanity Check 4: Affordability
Passengers want to get to the airport in the shortest amount of time and are willing to pay a premium, but the airport worker wants affordability. BMTC has been forced to offer monthly passes on its much vaunted Vayu Vajra service for Rs. 2,500 per month, which translates to Rs. 50 per trip (compared to a planned Rs. 200 on the HSRL), and even this most workers and businesses find expensive.
Sanity Check 5: Financial Viability
If the HSRL will not cater to airport workers, then traffic will drop to 300,000 trips per week. Even at 500,000 trips per week, and at Rs. 200 a trip, the gross revenue will be about Rs. 520 Crore per year. A profit after tax (PAT) of 10% will result in an annual profit of just about Rs. 52 Crore, ridiculously small for a 5,000+ Cr outlay.
I have tremendous regard for Mr. E. Sreedharan, especially his construction achievements on the Konkan railway and DMRC, but DMRC does not enjoy the best of reputations on financial transparency. Sunil Jain's Rational Expectations article in today's Business Standard is a good reality check on how DMRC manipulates or suppresses figures to project a rosy picture, when in reality, it is not.
I am the first person to stand in the Yes column when it comes to better connectivity to BIA, including the HSRL. However, at a time when Karnataka has more pressing infrastructural and social needs, a detailed sanity check is required to ensure the HSRL does not turn out to be another white elephant draining the precious public coffers.
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Regards
Devesh R. Agarwal
Visit my aviation blog at http://aviation.deveshagarwal.com
COMMENTS
Common Sense should come first
Sanjeev - 13 April, 2010 - 04:46
We need to re-look at HSRL as mentioned by Mr Padiyar.
HSRL is short sighted approach, taking care of only few Airport Passangers & its going to be waste of Public money of Rs 2500 crore to be pumped by state and Center Govt with Public Land getting Transferred to some Pvt firms in the name of HSRL.
Govt should drop the HSRL and concentrate on improving the Broad Gauge Rail Track infrstructure with Double Track from Yelahanaka to Chikabbalapur and Electrifiction and ensure that Train can run with speed more then 120-140Kms/ Hr.
Why are we so much obsessed with Airport connectivity when
When the Railway Broad Gauge Line is running next to Aiprot, they should extend the same to Airport Terminal ( 2 Kms only ) and run intercity Express Trains from Airport to Bangalore city, Mysore, Bidadi, Hosur, Bangarpet, Nelamangala, Hassan Chikaballapur, Kolar, Doddballapur and Tumakur.
As the Agreeement with BIAL is that within radius of 200 Kms, no Aiprot exists, so above mentioned towns / cities need efficient, Mass and integration with other modes of transport needed to connect to BIAL.
HSRL will be of Big Failure if Govt still adamant in going ahead. This will become one good monument for Garden city. As this will not connect to other parts of Bangalore and near by Townships ./ Cities.
With population nearing one crore for Bangalore city and added to it other towns and cities arround BIAL, Broad Gauage Rail with High speed Train running at 120-140 Kms / Hr speed will really of big use for the Airport Connectivity and other connectivity.
I think we need to file PIL in High court against HSRL to get the Broad Gauge line extended upto BIAL Terminal with Intercity Train speed of 120-140 Kms/ Hr running ( Trains already are running with this speed arround Delhi to Agra ). For improving the Broad Gauge capcity, project cost will be less then 1000 Crore to improve the Infrastructure for the Track speed above 120-140 Kms/ Hr and cost of Rackes will be really less compared to the HSRL Rackes.
As mentioned by Mr Devesh R. Agarwal starting :
I have tremendous regard for Mr. E. Sreedharan, especially his construction achievements on the Konkan railway and DMRC, but DMRC does not enjoy the best of reputations on financial transparency. Sunil Jain's Rational Expectations article in today's Business Standard is a good reality check on how DMRC manipulates or suppresses figures to project a rosy picture, when in reality, it is not.
I am the first person to stand in the Yes column when it comes to better connectivity to BIA, including the HSRL. However, at a time when Karnataka has more pressing infrastructural and social needs, a detailed sanity check is required to ensure the HSRL does not turn out to be another white elephant draining the precious public coffers.
With project cost HSRL now stands more then Rs 10,000 crore, with Existing Broad Guage Track with running capacity of 120-140 Kms/ Hr will not cost imore then Rs 2000 Crore ( Max 20% cost of HSRL ) will benifit most of the people not only Airport Passangers.
Near future HSRL will become one more scandel similar to NICE or BIAL, As Lakhs of Educated professionals are living in Bangalore, we need Good, Efficient, Affordable meeting the requiremnt of One crore population of Bangalore city. Not the short sighted HSRL which will be benifical to Reliance, or some Pvt firms.
big projects..bigger kickbacks..
srinidhi - 13 April, 2010 - 06:03
the eagerness of the CM makes one feel that its just the big payouts such projects would get and also big projects like this means name among public of something very big being done..
useful or not!
Closing of Hebbal Lake / Need to start campaign save Hebbal Lake
Sanjeev - 20 April, 2010 - 03:42
Activity No 1 :
NHAI will take up the task of converting the four-lane Hebbal flyover to six-lane, and make NH-7, from Hebbal flyover to the international airport, eight-lane wide and signal-free.
http://www.dnaindia.com/bangalore/report_tumkur-road-flyover-hits-a-roadblock_1373024
Already when Hebbal flyover was build in 2002-03, part of Hebbal lake was used for this. Now with one more ramp for the Flyover and expanding of the NH-7, this activity will bring down the Hebbal lake area.
Activity No 2 :
HSRL Hebbal station will be built on the left side of the Hebbal Flyover ramp while travelling from City. HSRL has project a need of 7 acer land of Hebbal Lake to construct the Check in Station. Further pillers of HSRL on the lake bed need to come up here.
On the rigth side of the Fly-over, traffic integration facility will come up as per DPR study of so called DMRC
Activity No 3 :
MonoRail from Yesvanthpur to do the feeder service to HSRL at Hebbal with further Traffic intigration.
With all these activity, I think Govt & IDD departments have good plan to close the Hebbal lake at the earliest in the name of Development.
Why IDD & Govt are not exploring the existing SWR track and further capacity addition to SWR tracks from KR Puram, Yesvanthpur, Hosur-Ankela to K R Puram, Bangarapet-Whietfiled to Yelahanaka. In all these segments, travell time will be arround 35-50 Minites as recently introduced passanger train from Yesvanthpur to Devanhalli takes 60 Minites as this will stop at all stations. If We have Fast Local Train with Electric engine, travell time will be less then 40 Minites.
Now with HSRL from MG road will be 30 Minites and further add the time taken to reach at MG road or Hebbal ( only two location ) will be more then 60 Minites.
With METRO getting integrated at four location to SWR stations at Mejestic, Yesvanthpur, Byappanahalli, Mysore Road, their is no sense & its clear picture for wha purpose IDD is working hard to sign the deal for HSRL with 10, 000 crore project & govt money in that is 2000 crore with 300 acre of Land being given to Pvt party for property development.
I hope Praja Members do the bit of campaign to Save the Hebbal Lake.
srinidhi - 12 April, 2010 - 16:11
"Besides cutting down commuting time to less than half an hour, HSRL could transform the economic landscape of the Bangalore North region, especially Devanahalli, Yelahanka and the airport corridor. Every large city — be it Shanghai, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur or London — has such a direct, high-speed link which results in economic multipliers far outweighing the high initial cost of construction"
Never understand CM's view on this..the two sentences above are forming an oxymoron..how can economic landscape of blr north change becos of this exclusive airtport link, as evident from the second sentence?
Economic growth happens when there is a public mass mover(read metro) not exclusive train(hsrl aka white elephant)
They all seem to be disillusioned with the fancy names in the proposals!
Abide doesnt like it and so do many others..why this now?
This is like saying 'Let them eat cake'!
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