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Sanity Check: Bangalore international airport rail link
Written By Devesh - 6 October, 2008
BIAL Bangalore PPP Analysis HSRL public transport Mobilicity Metro Rail
[Cross posted from My Blog]
The Karnataka state government is tripping over itself trying to expedite the High Speed Rail Link (HSRL) to the new Bengaluru International Airport (BIA), conservatively expected to cost Rs. 5,200 - Rs. 5,700 Crore by completion date, somewhere by 2012.
The HSRL project has been put on the fast track, and the Karnataka State Industrial Investment and Development Corporation Limited (KSIIDC) has already published a Request for Qualification (RFQ) document on its website. KSIIDC is expected to announce the short-list by October 21. The letter of award to the bidder is estimated for February 16, 2009. Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC), is the project consultant.
The City Airport Terminal (CAT), the starting point of the HSRL is on Parade Ground next to the Chinnaswamy Stadium on M.G. Road, with stations at Hebbal and Yelahanka. The final station will be at BIA. The first three stations will be elevated, and the BIA station is has not been determined as yet.
I am confused on some aspects of the HSRL when trying to do a sanity check.
Sanity Check 1: Who is the target customer of the HSRL ?
In 2012, assuming the global economy revives in the next 12 months, oil prices reduce drastically, and BIAL's ambition of a south India hub comes true, I can project a maximum growth to 30 million passengers. Which translates to about 500,000 passengers, up and down, per week. Assuming 60% of passengers use the HSRL, this translates to a maximum of 300,000 trips per week.
Assuming 20,000 workers at the airport, if airport workers are added, then the number of weekly trips can increase 50% to 450,000 trips.
The time-table of "airport city" where another 100,000 people are expected to work is unknown at this time. When airport city reaches peak capacity we can assume another 250,000 trips per week.
Each category of person has differing needs.
Sanity Check 2: Convenience
The Central Business District (CBD) which includes M.G. Road area is completely choked with traffic. How many travellers are willing endure the pain and hardship to come to the CAT, and then take a train.
HSRL passengers from Central, South and South East part of Bangalore can still be expected to use the CAT, since it is on the way to the airport. Those from the western, eastern, and north-western suburbs are not going to spend enormous amounts of time deviating from the shortest possible route to come to the CAT. It is unclear if there is a park and ride facility at Hebbal.
Sanity Check 3: Close integration with Namma Metro and BMTC
A lack of close integration with the Metro is another area due for a sanity check. Integration with the Metro is vital for the long term success of the HSRL as it will provide the distributed connectivity to various parts of the city. As per my understanding, the Minsk Square metro station will be connected by a 200 meter walkway to the CAT. 200 meters with luggage does not remotely qualify as integration. There is no information available on whether the Vayu Vajra service will be linked to the CAT.
Sanity Check 4: Affordability
Passengers want to get to the airport in the shortest amount of time and are willing to pay a premium, but the airport worker wants affordability. BMTC has been forced to offer monthly passes on its much vaunted Vayu Vajra service for Rs. 2,500 per month, which translates to Rs. 50 per trip (compared to a planned Rs. 200 on the HSRL), and even this most workers and businesses find expensive.
Sanity Check 5: Financial Viability
If the HSRL will not cater to airport workers, then traffic will drop to 300,000 trips per week. Even at 500,000 trips per week, and at Rs. 200 a trip, the gross revenue will be about Rs. 520 Crore per year. A profit after tax (PAT) of 10% will result in an annual profit of just about Rs. 52 Crore, ridiculously small for a 5,000+ Cr outlay.
I have tremendous regard for Mr. E. Sreedharan, especially his construction achievements on the Konkan railway and DMRC, but DMRC does not enjoy the best of reputations on financial transparency. Sunil Jain's Rational Expectations article in today's Business Standard is a good reality check on how DMRC manipulates or suppresses figures to project a rosy picture, when in reality, it is not.
I am the first person to stand in the Yes column when it comes to better connectivity to BIA, including the HSRL. However, at a time when Karnataka has more pressing infrastructural and social needs, a detailed sanity check is required to ensure the HSRL does not turn out to be another white elephant draining the precious public coffers.
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Regards
Devesh R. Agarwal
Visit my aviation blog at http://aviation.deveshagarwal.com
COMMENTS
Bengaluru airport to wait another decade for rail connectivity
Sanjeev - 24 August, 2015 - 10:46
In the next 10 years, when passenger traffic will almost double, expect congestion on roads to increase
Guess when Bengaluru will get rail connectivity to its airport? Not before 2025, the year passenger traffic is expected to touch 40 million and nearly two decades after the international airport opened for passengers.
This is an optimistic estimate. The Karnataka government is expecting metro connectivity in the third phase from the city to the Kempegowda International Airport, according to Chief Secretary Kaushik Mukherjee.
The first phase of 42.3 km, for which work began in 2007, is only partially operational. Work on the second phase, which costs Rs 26,000 crore, has barely begun with a timeline of another six years to complete.
After this, work on the third phase is expected to begin, provided Bangalore Metro Corporation Ltd, the agency that is building the metro, finalises a plan, gets it approved and ties up the finances.
The Bengaluru airport, the third busiest in the country, handled 18 million passengers till March this year. So in the next 10 years, when passenger traffic will almost double, expect congestion on roads to increase. It is now a two-hour drive from the city centre to the airport. From Electronics City, where offices of Infosys and Wipro are located, it takes even longer.
“Poor connectivity will lead to exasperation of passengers coming from or going to the airport. If the city is an economic hub for a state or the country, this could have an adverse impact on the business community,” said Deepak Baindur, an expert in urban transport, planning and management at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements.
Most Indian cities have seen delays in metro construction. In July, the Maharashtra government sought help from Delhi Metro Rail Corporation to expedite the construction of the Mumbai metro to 120 km from 11.4 km before 2019.
In Delhi, the DMRC has completed around 200 km. Hyderabad hopes to complete the first stretch of 17 km by 2016. Chennai opened its first stretch of 11 km in July.
Bengaluru, to make matters worse, is adding more vehicles on its roads. The city has more traffic violations booked than vehicles – 7.43 million violations booked in 2014 for 5.56 million vehicles. The city can also claim to have more vehicles per person than any other in the country. For every two Bengaluru residents, there are one-and-a-half vehicles – 5.56 million vehicles in March 2015 for a population of 9.5 million, according to the 2011 census.
Since then, migration to Bengaluru has grown thanks to the high-paying jobs the city generates and its cosmopolitan culture.
It is not that the government did not plan rail connectivity to the airport. A high-speed rail network to the city was discussed long before work on building the airport began. It was shelved.
Early this week, former DMRC Chairman E Sreedharan called for a high-speed rail network that will cover the 35 km distance from the city to the airport in around 20 minutes.
A six-lane highway that could dump passengers right into a traffic mess at Nagawara was also shelved. A half-built four-lane tollway is now operational on an existing national highway that connects the airport to Hebbal, an intersection that separates the highway to the city.
It takes 30 minutes to drive 25 km to this point and another hour to drive 10 km to MG Road, the central business district.
A railway station in Devanahalli connects the city and the track passes outside the airport. A 2005 plan to operate suburban trains to Devanahalli is still in the works.
“The railways certainly could address this. A line at Hebbal is underutilised. Instead of going for a metro, if we speed up a commuter rail network, it will be far cheaper than the metro,” said Baindur.
"We know the solution and if it is not addressed, the consequences for the city would be dire. If we are not able to provide public transit services, in effect, we will see more cars and services such as Ola car service."
http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/bengaluru-airport-to-wait-another-decade-for-rail-connectivity-115082000826_1.html
Well written article and its fact. With further delay in METRO, full fledge connectivity to Airport will be reality by 2030 only and that too depends on funds allocation by GOK abd GOI has washed its hands for Bangalore.
srinidhi - 24 August, 2015 - 12:58
Yes, Bangalore is adding close to 2000 vehicles onto its roads every day..at this rate we will not have enough roads to handle the vehicles!
A very prudent thought is to dedicate one lane of road space (15 ft) at grade for the metro. Yes, this will give rise to some challenges for road users and for that we can have underpasses(magic) and bridges as needed..
All this will do is make the trip to the airport faster and make a statement to the public that they do not need personal vehicles all the time!
Vasanth - 24 August, 2015 - 14:59
Hi Srinidhi,
To get metro itself till Nagawara would take another decade atleast looking at complete underground Nagawara - IIM line. Easiest solution would be to have dedicated bus lanes. Most sustainable option. Elsewhere there is road width limitation, whereas here we have double decker road.
when their is no will from GOK or GOI, next 15 years we wil not
Sanjeev - 25 August, 2015 - 11:48
Next 15 years Devanhallai Airport will not see any mass public transport expcet these high cost BMTC buses ( equvialent to travelling by taxi if 2 /3 people go to airport )
METRO PH-1 itself becoming very hot for GOK to keep floating the white elephant, then already PH-2 is draging its weight so that GOK will sink and intern city sinks on debt burden.
Bangalore need a bailout package from PM for all these white elephents to surrive or citizens not to have much tax burden.
So in effect, BIAL Aiport can look forward for mass Public Transport only after 2025
Looking at the BIAL , which itself is not intrested to get the halt railway station below Trumphet Flyover, which may cost just 50 Lakhs to One Crore. That means BIAL does not want mass Public Transport so that more cars pass thru toll highway and more cars pay the parking fees at BIAL Airport.
This subject going since 2007, so some one can do the PHD
Sanjeev - 25 August, 2015 - 11:52
I feel from academic point of view also, some can take up PHD how BIAL airport still works hard to miss the Public Transport with help of GOK, BMRCL, SWR, BMTC and BBMP.
Discussion were their for HSRL, Mono Rail, METRO, Commuter Rail, BRTS, shuttel helicpoters, FLY BY Bus service, Taxi.
With just two lane road inside BIAL, how long wil it take to get jammed during peak hrs like in the morning and evening ???
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