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Lets talk 2050
Written By idontspam - 28 August, 2009
Traffic Bangalore Road Works Roads Analysis Transportation public transport Infrastructure Pedestrian Infrastructure
So there will be population increase in Bangalore like other cities, two out of three people in this world are going to be in the cities. Experts agree there is not much sense fighting this trend as ecosystems for supporting the economy are very much in the city and we need to manage this. Assuming Bangalore will grow a little faster than the national avg. we should double our population to 14 mil in maybe 35 years. We will need to increase density in the inner city to handle an economy that will serve this population. We need to put our money on a viable transport mix. Tokyo already handles this kind of traffic what lessons we can learn from Tokyo?
Time for a simcity excersice, within the confines of the ORR, how do you see the layout of the city in 2050 and what would be the salient features for Bangalore to be an example (good one) for the rest of the country (forget world)
COMMENTS
s_yajaman - 28 August, 2009 - 15:02
I will be 80 and am not sure I want to be around :) given how well we treat our senior citizens today.
Lets look at 2050. I have a very pessimistic outlook of 2050 and this will colour my post.
a. Climate change will ensure that monsoons would have become extremely unpredictable and we will have an absolute deluge of people into urban areas. Bangalore would have burst at its seams. I would say even 17-18 million is feasible. Doubling in 35 years using the rule of 70 means 2% growth - 3-5% is more likely
b. We will be well past peak oil (expected anytime between 2010 and 2020). Given the state of coal resources brown outs will be rampant. The smarter people would have gone for solar power and rainwater harvesting.
c. India will have a population of some 1.8-2 billion depending on how well we have done our family planning. Tigers, elephants will be extinct in India and forest cover will be down to 4-5% at best.
We should ensure
a. We would have finished about 150-200 km of Metro in Bangalore with all arterial roads covered and have a dedicated nuclear plant to keep this going (somewhere near Bellary which would have been converted to wasteland anyway).
b. More space for cycles and walking as that will be the only affordable option.
c. We will have a much smaller city with most offices vertical and give incentives to pull down current buildings on MG Road and Old Airport Road and build 50-60 storey buildings. Essentially have 30-40 of 60 storey buildings in a 5-6 square km each with 5-6 million square feet of space. or about 200 millon square feet of space or a place where 2-3 million people work. There will be similar working hubs in 4-5 parts of the city. (Driving from 35 km, etc will simply not be affordable)
d. Provide enough economic incentive for vertical housing as well and ensure that space is conserved and people live closer to work. We cannot afford urban sprawl.
Srivathsa
What could be a possible strategy
idontspam - 28 August, 2009 - 18:49
Climate change will ensure...
Between a killer virus and climate change... I would pick the virus. I guess we dont have to wait billions of years for the sun to eat up the earth.
Back to the point. Cycling and walking will become the last mile and not be used for end to end travels. Local bicycle rentals at all hubs need to start getting encouraged with the 1st phase of metro itself and mass transit needs to accomodate velib style bikes. ELCIA is making a good start on last mile cycling per recent reports. That is the way to go inside the city as well.
I agree current FAR is underutilising the space in the CBD and BBMP should approve only those structures that will be considerably taller and compulsorily LEED rated within the CBD. All new residential areas and group housing schemes have to compulsiorly agree to minimum green cover and be audited for the same. If this is not adhered to immediately you will have wall to wall concrete. Relaxation of FAR will help to a great extent.
I dont agree with the not driving 35kms part. People working in BIAL new industrial area will begin to live in chick/dod-ballapur. They will need fast commute into BLR city or to electronic city. Fast commuter rails connecting cities within 60-70kms is a necessity. We cant drag our feet on 1 HSRL for so long. A railway hub needs to be planned near BIAL for super fast trains.
North south & east west roadways (for private+public transport)across BLR city will be needed to connect current IT corridor with the ones coming up at BIAL & Bidadi. This will enable the city to be congestion charged.
If the above connectivity is not started on now we will be staring at a total meltdown by 2020 itself.
Minor correction on CC/AGW + overall not optimistic
s_yajaman - 28 August, 2009 - 19:55
IDS,
I don;t mean the climate change brought about by the sun becoming a red giant. I mean the climate change brought on by ourselves through CO2. More and more of the Arctic is ice free each year.
There will be mass extinction events well before the sun even remotely reaches the red giant stage. They happen once in 65-70 million years.
Did not get the people working in BIA staying in Dod/Chik ballapur needing fast connectivity to E-City. Why?? They don't work there by your first statement.
Cycling is a perfectly viable option for upto 10 km (30 mins one way). Why do you rule it out summarily?
Our track record from 1999-2009 is quite poor. We had SM Krishna who frankly wasted 5 years of a majority rule. No progress on mass transit, no progress on the airport. Just tarring roads is not a very big achievement.
I see us headed for total meltdown given our track record - on power, water, education, transport, environment. The crisis will be huge and that will force us to rethink our whole approach.
You are a technology cornucopian; I am not. With oil at $20, we could not commercialize desalination. We are as far from nuclear fusion as we were in 1980 with viable fusion always 20 years away. And we will have 9 billion people on our planet by 2050.
Srivathsa
idontspam - 28 August, 2009 - 21:50
mean the climate change brought on by ourselves through CO2
I know what you meant, I threw in the red gaint to emphasise the inevitability. You have a point there about the extinction, my take is it will probebly be a virus.
working in BIA staying in Dod/Chik ballapur needing fast connectivity to E-City. Why??
There may be requirements to travel to IT corridor also. We cant box people into corners can we.
Why do you rule it out summarily?
Not ruling out but considering the population and mass transport scenario we should encourage last mile connectivity by cycle. Not that there wont be mavericks doing their 30kms by cycle.
We look to the west to provide us technology to do everything. Desalination should have been perfected by the countries which lack water supply namely 'us'. This is why I want the govt out of silly business interests like airplanes, buses, watches, soaps etc and go back to utilizing tax rupees on fundemental research. The spin offs need to be given to industry and move along. Not sit down and start running things. Leave businesses to the people who are running around for employment anyway, Abdul Kalam said yesterday "Today, India needs employment generators, not employment seekers. And the quality of an employment generator is creative leadership."
Understand your pessimism, but necessity is the mother of invention. Technology is what will bail out mainkind not going back to living in caves.
idontspam - 28 August, 2009 - 17:34
Some data to ponder over
Tokyo (src: wiki)
Population- 12.7 mil
Area - 2187sqkm
Density - 5847 people/sqkm
HK (src: wiki)
Population - 7mil
Area - 1108 sqkm
Density - 6054 people/sqkm
Bangalore (src: bbmponline.org)
Population - 6.8mil
Area - 800 sqkm
Density - 8500 people/sqkm
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