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Hi-Speed Rail - A ReThink
Written By Naveen - 20 February, 2009
Bangalore High Speed Rail Analysis Trains HSRL public transport Mobilicity Metro Rail
Hi Folks,
It does seem a hugely expensive exercise that would cater to perhaps, a few thousand each day. At first look, it does seem a questionable investment decision with dubious rationale - is this really so ?
A few points that may be pondered over ---
1) A major part of the investment appears to be from the private sector. Thus, wastage of public funds will be minimal. The know-how for private financing for infrastructure projects, particularly transport infrastructure projects will get a huge boost as also for operation & improvement of transport services. Involvement of private parties in urban transport has been negligible in this country & this could provide the major benefit of promoting funding by private parties into much needed areas in the urban transport sector in the coming years.
2) Air travelers, in general will hesitate using a Metro that stops each kilometer en-route. Such stop-starts add to the inconvenience of travel to the airport to take a flight & add to the chain of avoidable delays. Road traffic with taxis to & from airport may therefore not reduce by much, even if a Metro rail is in operation. It mus also be remembered here that the non-stop Volvo Vajras have been doing a commendable job so far in getting air travelers quickly to & from the airport, though they may have been losing some money.
3) If a Metro is planned for the airport, it would come attached with many strings - It would have to run right up to the airport in the most direct possible route that also has some daily commuter traffic (ie. possibly along bellary road) & terminate only at the airport (since the airport terminal stands isolated some 5 kms off the highway), It would also have to come down all the way directly & integrate with other mode/s at MG Rd /BRV, It must permit baggage scan /check-in, etc. Thus, the interests of daily commuters on the Metro will be compromised to some extent, as also the interests of air travelers.
4) Though ticket pricing with a dedicated hi-speed rail is bound to be on the high side, eventually, when the airport does grow in full earnest sometime in the future, it is bound to become a necessity. So, why not plan along these lines & start a process for working on one now ? If a Metro or other exclusive track transport is put in place for the airport, the need for a hi-speed dedicated rail will of course become diluted. If attention to hi-speed rail is neglected now, it might never materialize as other mode/s may begin operating, though they may not be the ideal choice, & also involve huge public investments.
5) A Metro line to Yelahanka via Vidyaranyapura to take care of daily commuters & connecting areas in the north to the city can progress simultaneously & independent of the hi-speed rail, with daily city commuters’ interests in mind solely. This Metro route could also integrate with the hi-speed rail at Yelahanka & at Hebbal. Daily commuters form city to airport could be given subsidized passes for use to /from Hebbal or Yelahanka on the hi-speed rail (this is being done at Kuala-Lumpur in Malaysia). A clause must be drawn into the agreement with private parties & the interests of the several hundreds who work at the airport must also be preserved.
Considering all of the above, I believe that a hi-speed rail may be worth pursuing, after all since it may come almost free for the state ! Air travelers will of course pay for it over a period (similar to the airport), but then the expenses are distributed over so many – it will not be too heavy on the pockets since air travel is a rarity for most & not a daily ritual, such as commuting to & from work.
What are your thoughts on this ?
COMMENTS
HSRL - Expensive, Not for Govt
Naveen - 25 February, 2009 - 11:05
Srivathsa,
Surface rail, as mentioned by you would need land acquisition. The rail link will probably be aligned along the median of Bellary road. So, though construction costs with surface rail will be lower, land costs would make it even higher than going elevated over the land already publicly owned along the road median/s.
I guess these are the reasons why Dr.Sreedharan insists on HSRL :
1) Since airport rail is a must, why not hi-speed ? The additional costs are anyway being met by private parties, in whose opinion, HSRL would probably be far more viable due to increased patronization levels as it would be the best possible service for airport connectivity as opposed to slower rail or road services.
2) Financial risks would be out from the govt /public domain. Project execution becomes easier since funding, one of the main constraints is out of the govt's hands & the risks would be squarely in the lap of the private consortium.
3) Responsibility for construction & operations for a pre-determined period, say 30-35 years will also be out of govt /public domain. The private consortium will have to redress all greviances from the public & the govt, if any.
4) Guaranteed market with well-heeled commuters, willing to pay higher ticket prices - this is a growth sector & profits will escalate, though as analysed by you, it might take a while (the construction phase ?) due to the prevailing economic downturn.
5) Flexible capacity variation based on the targeted market (unlike Metro, which, till Yelahanka will see full 6-coach train loads, but with much fewer volumes beyond till airport).
6) Takes care of all future needs since the dedicated service will be almost a life-time installation, if not for even further period/s. So, no ifs /buts /doubts will be encountered through the planning & execution phases as it is appropriate for the target market over any length of time. If a Metro line is built out of public finances, there will always be questions regarding it's appropriateness, based on patronization levels, which are bound to be poor beyond Yelahanka as also due to it's slowness for air travellers.
What does the govt & public lose ?
1) Rights over operation upto the agreed period (30-35 years).
2) Lesser control over ticket pricing.
3) Concessions & exclusive rights, such as "No operation of Vaayu Vajras", "No Public buses beyond Trumpet Inter-change", etc. to ensure people use this service. Taxis & private cars cannot obviously be restrained into the airport premises.
4) Exclusive rights for advertisement space at stations & within coaches, as also on tickets & other such item/s.
Thus, the advantages outweigh the negatives.
Naveen - 27 February, 2009 - 05:21
I think the BIAL rail will not run at 300km/hr. The time for travel of some 30-odd km (with a couple of stops inbetween) has been quoted as 23 minutes. So, in all likelihood, the maximum speed may not exceed 150-170km/hr.
As you rightly mentioned, when such very large investments are made, they must always take the long term requirements into account, & must never be based on the next 10 years alone. Further, it's wise to think well ahead of time, too - could'nt agree with you more.
Capital investments as also operation of the rail will be by the private sector for some agreed period. So, there would be better control over wastage as also minimal use of public funds.
The HSRL, with very few stations, built on stilts along existing road/s will certainly cost lesser than Metro with many stations along the route involving land issues at very high acquisition costs.
HSRL, unlike Metro, will not be suitable for daily commuters as the train will not be able to stop & start within short distances. Thus, it will have to be between city & airport, with typically two stops inbetween.
Naveen - 3 March, 2009 - 15:36
KSIIDC has called for RFQ (Request for Qualification). Salient features are as follows :
The train is to have 6 coaches, speed upto 160 km/hr, transit time (city to BIAL) <25 mins,
Current (2009) cost: 3894 crs (4313 crores if designed underground at BIAL)
Completion (2012) cost: 5190 crs (5767crs if designed underground at BIAL)
Fares envisaged :
From City Air Terminal (CAT) at Police grounds to International Airport = Rs.200/-
From Hebbal to International Airport = Rs.150/-
From Yelahanka to International Airport = Rs.100/-
Monthly or quarterly season tickets will be priced on the basis of Rs.50/- per journey & forty journeys per month i.e. Rs.2000/- p.m.
Some extracts :
City Airport Terminal
The High Speed Rail link to the new International Airport starts from the Police Grounds situated between M.G Road and Cubbon Road. Police Grounds represents practically the city center, well connected on all sides to the entire city and its outskirts. The ramp of the Bangalore Metro is also located in this area. The structure of the City Airport Terminal (CAT) is being planned in such a way that the needs of Bangalore Metro are fully met while at the same time the remaining area is utilized for the CAT. The proposed Bangalore
Metro Rail crosses Police Grounds diagonally as a ramp from the underground station of Minsk Square to the elevated station on the M. G. Road. It is possible to accommodate in the Police Grounds the requirements of both the Bangalore Metro and CAT of the High Speed Rail Link. The CAT structure will be put up around the Bangalore Metro Ramp. In other words the Metro ramp structure will go through the CAT Building, the two systems totally isolated, at the same time integrated together.
The CAT structure will be multi storied with separate departure and arrival areas. Initially, it will have 60 check–in counters for international passengers and another 60 for domestic passengers with provision to increase their numbers to cater to future demand. Provision is also being made for facilities such as Airline Ticketing Offices, CAT and Rail Line Offices, Shopping Arcade, Restaurants,
Coffee Shops, Rest Rooms, etc. There will be adequate parking facilities for private cars, taxis, autos etc. The Complex will have about 1800 parking capacity for “park and fly” passengers. "
Willingness to Travel by the Proposed High Speed Rail Link
Opinion survey conducted shows that a large number of passengers and workers (80%) are willing to use the proposed High Speed Rail Link. About 71% staff surveyed also expressed their willingness to shift to the ‘proposed Rail Link. About 81% of the surveyed passengers expressed their preference for a City Check-in facility.
mcadambi - 4 March, 2009 - 11:07
The HSRL then has a good chance of being economical. If one considers the AirTrain of NYC, which combines both passengers to JFK and other routes, then yes, HSRL has a good chance of succeeding.
In about 4 years from now, air passenger traffic should be up as well.
Nevertheless, development of DBP and inauguration of DBP within months of HSRL coming up is critical for HSRL.
s_yajaman - 25 February, 2009 - 08:40
Naveen,
BIAL expects to close year 1 with about 8.3 million passenger vs the 11 million that was anticipated. I can tell you how empty the airport looks now even at 6:30 a.m.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/01/24/stories/2009012450561700.htm
Let's assume that we stay flat in 09-10 vs 08-09(optimistic!) and then growth returns. Lets say air traffic growth averages 15-16% per year then on. That means doubling every 5 years. so we will be at about 16 million passengers by 2014-15 (I hope praja is around till then so that I can validate my forecast!). AT 50% usage we will have 8 million annual passengers or about 25000/day. Do you really think this is viable at those volumes? Will private parties really come forward unless some other goodies are offered? Risks increase with projects that are so far into the future. The elevated expressway is now 1 YEAR behind schedule and this for a 9 km stretch.
There are many ways to get a rail link. A surface line can be added at 1/5-1/8 of the cost and cheaper rolling stock can be put in place. A journey time of 45 mins vs 23 mins on the HSRL is not make or break. My issue is that HSRL seems to be the only viable option in the eyes of Mr.Sreedharan.
Srivathsa
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