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Peak Oil before 2020 a significant risk - Report from the UK
Written By s_yajaman - 8 October, 2009
Peak Oil Media Reports India Transportation public transport Infrastructure
The other big theme that I follow is peak oil. There has been a flurry of articles in the mainstream media that last few days on this topic.
This is extremely relevant to Bangalore as we design (if at all) our city for the next 20-30 years. Mobility is a key element of any city and the investments we make should ensure they do not assume cheap petrol or diesel. Public transport, pedestrianization and cycling should start getting emphasis from now.
What is peak oil? It is the maximum rate of oil extraction. Currently oil is being extracted at about 85 million barrels per day or about 30 billion barrels (GB) per year. This is approximately 1 cubic mile a year. This has remained fairly static in the last 5 years inspite of growing demand from India and China. The rate did not go up significantly inspite of record oil prices seen in Aug/Sep 2008. For more on Peak Oil (PO) please read this link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
The UK Energy Research Centre published a report a couple of days back.
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/333587/peak_oil_before_2020_
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=Global+Oil+Depletion
Based on the data that they had at their disposal they believe that there is a significant risk to oil supplies being unable to meet growing demand in the next 10 years.
The main reason is the relentless treadmill imposed on the industry by the falling output of most existing fields, as a result of falling reservoir pressures and a long-term decline in the size of the fields being discovered. The UKERC found that total production from existing fields is declining at 4 per cent or more each year, meaning the world has to add 3 million barrels of daily production capacity annually just to stand still, equivalent to developing a new Saudi Arabia every three years. This will present 'a major challenge, even if ‘above-ground’ conditions are favourable', says the report.
'If you don’t even recognize the problem you will inevitably be unprepared,' says Sorrell. 'The Government needs to wake up to oil depletion and start planning, because it’s going to mean major changes infrastructure, investment and lifestyles'.
The last statement is very true of most governments including our own.
What about alternatives. It takes time to build alternatives. And the scale at which we will have to do this is truly massive and will require massive investments. What does it take to replace 1 cubic mile of oil
Any of these or a combination. Please see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil
- 4 Three Gorges Dams[11], developed each year for 50 years, or
- 52 nuclear power plants[12], developed each year for 50 years, or
- 104 coal-fired power plants[13], developed each year for 50 years, or
- 32,850 wind turbines, [14][15] developed each year for 50 years, or
- 91,250,000 rooftop solar photovoltaic panels[16] developed each year for 50 years
So 200 Three Gorges dam each year or 2600 nuclear plants each year. That shows how much we depend on oil and how much we have taken it for granted.
Srivathsa
COMMENTS
idontspam - 8 October, 2009 - 18:27
How about a target for each house in Bangalore by 2020 to take care of its household energy needs via solar panel & windmills on its roof. Energy exchange to buy and sell excess energy produced. Harvest water and channel excess to a community pool.
Daunting and we havent even learnt to lay roads properly yet. We should probably join Somalia and campaign to stay backward.
s_yajaman - 9 October, 2009 - 03:12
Deepak - yup - I frequent The Oil Drum almost as often as I frequent our site.
Professor Albert Bartlett of the Colorado university has this interesting definition of agriculture - "The use of land to convert petroleum to food".
The US uses approximately 7 calories of energy to produce 1 calorie of food. The green revolution was possible only because of fertilizers which themselves need petroleum to make.
I read a report that there was a shortage of 23 lakh tons of fertilizer this year. It went largely unnoticed because of the drought and therefore lack of demand. Andwe have a 1.2 billion people to feed and adding 25 million each year.
The twin threats/challenges of PO and CC will make life very interesting.
Srivathsa
s_yajaman - 9 October, 2009 - 03:32
The government has to recognize and acknowledge that there is a problem. Building new energy infrastructure takes energy and money. Silicon panels don't grow by photosynthesis or by magic. They need to be manufactured using electricity and transported using oil. Nuclear power plants take 10 years to build.
Maybe they will respond when there is a real crisis on their hands - massive power cuts, diesel shortages and drought. But in general their concern is only the next elections. And the people who vote for them are concerned more about survival today.
I am no fan of the Chinese system of government - but they don't live for the next elections and hence take a longer view of things. Notice how they have been using their foreign reserves to buy up oil fields and coal fields.
Srivathsa
China - clearly marching ahead of others
Naveen - 9 October, 2009 - 05:08
Chinese system of government - they don't live for the next elections and hence take a longer view of things. Notice how they have been using their foreign reserves to buy up oil fields and coal fields.
Well, I am now a fan of the chinese govt - the system, despite it's disregard to freedom on an individual basis (or, should I say - the advantages as a result of this ?), is moving their country clearly with a focus on long-term future goals.
At just about every level, their efforts manifest themselves - be they investemnts into clean energy sources (a report states that they spent 300% of what US spent last year on this alone), or city development or rural development.
I recently visited the Guangzhou higher education mega center - mind boggling size & awesome facilities ! Almost a city in itself with two subway stations catering to it. They have routed the subways entirely underground, which enhances the appearance of the whole area dotted with greenery & nature, with wide 8-lane main streets & excellent bicycle tracks & facilities - will post some pictures over the weekened. Thus, clearly, they have set targets on higher education too, in english. Some Indians were also seen there - didn't get a chance to speak to them.
In sharp contrast, what is our system doing ? Encouraging arguments, delaying projects, fostering corruption, retarding progress - all in the name of debates in a democracy - clearly, we are not worthy of democarcy. We need an iron hand to rule us & a guiding light to get us out of the hole we have dug ourselves into.
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