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Not your post but the numbers from BMRCL, 

They have 10712 passengers in 2011 at Mysore Road Terminal.  10712 not 10700 not 11000.  not between 10000 and 12000.  Single point estimates are not a great way to do forecasts.  Better to work with a range.

I think we should start with 6 car rakes on both.  Supply creates its own demand.  If people see packed 3 car rakes, it might put them off and by the time 3 car rakes are converted to 6 car rakes, it will be another 2 years. 

Aane baradu aane baala... :)

Srivathsa

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According to news reports, including this one http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news/city/bangalore/Trains-every-three-minutes-Wait-till-2012/articleshow/4857853.cms, BMRCL is making even more ambitious projections. To quote the article "In a statement filed before the court, the BMRC has stated that by 2011, the Metro trains are expected to be carrying 10.2 lakh passengers per day. This is likely to increase to 19.72 lakh by 2021, with extensions of the corridors."

So assuming this report is accurately reporting the filed statement (big assumption), BMRCL seems to have goofed up alteast at bit because the first phase is scheduled to be done at the fag end of 2011.

Even assuming these numbers are for the first full year of operation, perhaps 2012, are they seriously saying that they will carry 10 lakh passengers in the first year! For perspective, the first phase of the Delhi Metro (3 lines) had projections of about 20 Lakhs. The actual ridership when it was completed was somewhere in the region of 7 Lakhs. Even today, after small additional segments have been added, and feeder buses introduced by DMRC, the numbers just about touch 10 lakhs on a good day. http://www.indianexpress.com/news/With-over-9-lakh-passengers--Metro-records-new-high/498656

The fact that it carries 9 lakh+ passengers daily is still extraordinarily significant and makes a huge impact on the lives of Delhiites. It is probably tough to find a comman man on the Delhi streets who doesn't love the Metro. But the initial, over optimistic projections give a handy stick to detractors (e.g. BRTS lobby) to constantly gripe about how the project is a failure and keep approaching the court with PILs.

I fear BMRCL is setting itself up for a similar fall.

It is better for it to learn from recent Light Rail projects in the US (Phoenix, Dallas etc) which have very conservative projections and then handily beat them once launched. This creates a huge positive vibe and builds momentum.

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I beleive the projection in DPR are done with eye on getting approvals from the governments for the project without many questions being raised about the financial viability of the project.  Eventhough its a social obligation of the government to fund such projects, it looks for leeway  by hiding behind the projections in case of any issues.  My money is on BMRCL  not meeting the projection for phase I as did delhi metro, for which it got rap on knuckles from CAG.  The hope is that in the long run metro routes encompass the entire city, with many lines and forks which would mitigate the transportation problems woes of bangalore.

vinod 

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If the Underground  work is going to be that hard, rather they can make it elevated..  At this stage of the project it is again going to delay if they think of the elevated route, again the route may have to be slightly changed keeping in view of the buildings/structures of importance. Lets keep the fingers crossed and wait for the official stand on this from BMRC.

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